Yes, southern Idaho got some snow last week – with emphasis on “some.” In fact, February was one of the driest on record.
“We'll be looking at our second driest February ever. And those records go back to 1878,” said Stephen Parker, a lead forecaster at the National Weather Service office near the Boise airport.
“And another little extra fact I can add on for you: we moved out here to the airport in 1940, so this is the driest February ever since we moved to the airport,” he said.
As February transitions to March, Parker visited with Morning Edition host George Prentice to talk about the short term, long term, and long, long term weather outlook.
“Generally, once we have this much sunlight, the sun is usually able to … it's not a technical term…but what we say is ‘burn through’ that inversion, and mix the air out.”
Read the full transcript below:
GEORGE PRENTICE: It is Morning Edition on Boise State Public Radio News. Good morning. I'm George Prentice. Well, here we are about to say goodbye to February and hello to March. And if you like change, particularly in the weather, buckle in. And that's why we're going to spend some time this morning with Stephen Parker, a lead forecaster at the National Weather Service office in Boise. Stephen, good morning.
STEPHEN PARKER: Good morning, George. Thanks for having me on.
PRENTICE: You bet. Much to talk about this morning, but let's start with the short term. What can you tell us about what we might expect this week?
PARKER: Well, we're going to have generally dry weather down here in the Treasure Valley. There'll be some showers in the mountains tomorrow and Wednesday. Thursday, we're going to have a large upper level trough come through the area that's going to send our temperatures back down again and bring showers to most of the area. It looks like rain in the valleys and snow in the mountains.
PRENTICE: We've heard about almost spring-like temperatures for midweek.
PARKER: Yes, today we're going to hit 50. Tomorrow looks like close to mid-50s and Wednesday we should top 60.
PRENTICE: OK… February.. we did get a bit of snow, actually just a dusting last week, but it did seem as if it was pretty dry this month.
PARKER: Yeah, it has been one of our driest months ever. We've had 0.08 inches of what we call liquid equivalent, which is what you get if you melt the snow down. And if we don't get any more by the end of today and I don't think we will it, we'll be looking at our second driest February ever. And those records go back to 1878. And another little extra fact I can add on for you. We moved out here to the airport in 1940, so this is the driest February ever since we moved to the airport.
PRENTICE: So, drought conditions remain?
PARKER: We are in some level of drought. We've seen much worse, but we've seen a whole lot better this winter started out really good up in the mountains with building a snowpack for irrigation purposes later in the year and recreation and so forth. But this last month, month and a half has been really bad, and we are no longer keeping up with where we would hope to be for this time of year.
PRENTICE: What can you tell us about La Nina? We're in a La Nina year.
PARKER: We are in a La Nina situation right now. That's expected to weaken over the next few months, and by summer, we're going to be in what they call neutral conditions, which is neither La Nina nor El Nino. We have not had really what one would kind of expect with La Nina. Of course, there's so many other factors that come into play with the worldwide climate. Lending is just one factor, but we had hoped for some more precipitation by this point that we have not received
PRENTICE: Just out of curiosity when we do see temperatures 50… close to 60…where is the is that coming? From the north or the south?
PARKER: We're going to have some southwest flow aloft southwest before that trough comes in on Thursday, and that typically brings the warmer and drier air from the southwest. And that's where our warm air is going to be coming from this time. Great question.
PRENTICE: So, is the jet stream where it has been in years past?
PARKER: I mean, this type of thing does happen periodically, but we've seen a shift to a rather large anti cyclone or ridge over the Pacific Northwest or just off the coast, and that's diverted most of the jet stream well to our north. And it's been diving down over the central part of the country. Your listeners might be familiar with some of the large snows and storm systems they've had they've had over the eastern United States over the last few months. Right. Sorry, the last few weeks, really the last six weeks or so. And that's indicative of…they're in a big trough over there with cold, stormy weather, and we're under a ridge with generally dry and cool weather.
PRENTICE: Wow. Ok, let's talk about long range, let's say, for March. What are you looking at?
PARKER: March right now, the Climate Prediction Center puts out our official outlooks, and for March right now for our area, they're looking at equal chances on temperature to perhaps slightly cooler than normal. So we're right kind of on the edge between what they would call better chances of cooler versus just, you know, we can't tell you much of anything except normal. The precipitation outlook, however, is actually pretty good. We are in the above normal precipitation outlook for the month of March, so they're anticipating a stormy, stormy pattern for the next four weeks or so.
PRENTICE: And how far out can you look? Can you look as we transition from winter to spring? Do you have something like a long, long range?
PARKER: Yes, they put outlooks out all the way to a year ahead, OK? Obviously, the accuracy of those outlooks is not great. It's just beyond the state of the science at this time, but presently for the combined months of March, April and May. Temperature outlook for us is to be close to normal. And unfortunately, the same thing with precipitation. I would love to see us in the above normal area for that. But right now there just there's not much to go off of form as La Nina weakens and they have us in a in a descriptor called equal chances.
PRENTICE: For those of us who do begin our days well before the Sun comes up, goodness knows we really appreciate a little bit more daylight by this time at the end of March. We could have considerably more daylight.
PARKER: Yes, we will have much more daylight by then. We are ramping up towards the spring equinox later on in March. Here, the 20th or 21st every year is when that occurs, and that's when we'll have, you know, equal night and equal day lifetime. So we are we are in that period of time where things are increasing by one to two minutes every day when I say things, I mean sunlight, of course. Mm hmm. And one of the good things that does for us, George, most of the time in the winter, we'll get the occasional inversion to set in and keep us cold and sometimes foggy or drizzly for a long time. And generally, once we have this much sunlight, the sun is usually able to. It's not a technical term, but what we say is burn through that inversion and mix the air out. So we're pretty much past the time of year where we would expect to have any kind of significant inversion and getting into that time of year where that's no longer a concern.
PRENTICE: And I've heard you say something like the “Valentine” factor, right?
PARKER: Yeah, just kind of a rule of thumb here in the office that once we get past Valentine's Day, the odds of a significant inversion go way down. So it's just as you were saying, it's coincident with the increase in the sunlight they go together.
PRENTICE: Wow. But temperatures in the 60s, there's something to hang our hat on, at least for now or bald cap.
PARKER: Yes. Yes, indeed, it's going to feel really nice. Probably the most, folks. It enhances evaporation a little bit, which dries us out a little bit more. But hopefully we'll get some showers there on Thursday as that system comes through. And it does look like we might get an additional system next weekend. But we're waiting for the models to kind of converge on a solution with that. But it's it's definitely in the mix. I don't see another large ridge coming in, which would give us a lengthy period of dry weather again, like we've experienced for much of February. So hopefully March will give us a storm of your pattern and we can get some snow up in the mountains and get some moisture down here in the valley as well.
PRENTICE: Really good stuff. Thank you to you and all of your colleagues. He is Stephen Parker, a lead forecaster at the National Weather Service office in Boise. Stephen, thank you for some good news. Nice way to start this week off. Thank you so much for giving us some time this morning.
PARKER: Always a pleasure to speak with you and take care.
Find reporter George Prentice on Twitter @georgepren
Copyright 2021 Boise State Public Radio
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