Dry weather is putting the Great Lakes’ water levels on a downward trend. The new lake level forecast is out for the summer. Lake levels should be in a range that most will call a sweet spot.
Great Lakes’ water levels are expected to be much lower than the record-high levels over the past few years, but still above the long-term average water level.
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers reports that precipitation over the Great Lakes basin has been below average now for six months in a row. There have been small exceptions, like Lake Superior’s drainage basin getting 125% of normal precipitation in April. The drier than normal weather has led to some significant declines in the water levels.
Normally, we see the Great Lakes’ water levels go into a seasonal rise to typically a high water mark in July. So the forecasts below do show an expected rise in water levels, but to a lesser degree than normal. We have also lost a few inches of normal water rise already this spring.
In the lake level forecast of Lake Superior just below, the dashed green line on the right side of the graph is the most likely lake level into summer. Lake Superior is forecast to stay about 6 inches below record levels and 6 inches above the long-term average.
Lake Superior lake level forecast on right side of graph. Green dashed line is most likely level in future. Red shaded area surrounding green line is the range of possible outcomes. (Forecast by U.S. Army Corps of Engineers)
Lake Michigan and Lake Huron water levels have decreased significantly since last July. Now the forecast for this summer puts the lake level in a great position for most people. The lakes will still be about 16 inches higher than average, but around 18 inches below last summer’s record level.
Lake Michigan and Lake Huron lake level forecast on right side of graph. Green dashed line is most likely level in future. Red shaded area surrounding green line is the range of possible outcomes. (Forecast by U.S. Army Corps of Engineers)
Lake Erie should be in that sweet spot also of enough water for boaters, but not damaging high water levels.
Lake Erie lake level forecast on right side of graph. Green dashed line is most likely level in future. Red shaded area surrounding green line is the range of possible outcomes. (Forecast by U.S. Army Corps of Engineers)
Lake Ontario has actually plunged below the long-term average water levels. The forecast for summer’s high water mark is for Lake Ontario to stay below average.
Lake Ontario lake level forecast on right side of graph. Green dashed line is most likely level in future. Red shaded area surrounding green line is the range of possible outcomes. (Forecast by U.S. Army Corps of Engineers)
I’m calling it the “sweet spot” of water levels because boaters and shipping won’t have to worry about low water levels, or adjusting dock heights due to record high water. The water should be low enough that devastating water damage will be limited. We could still have shoreline erosion if a big wind storm comes up. The lakes would be low enough, however, to not wash structures into the lake.
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May 14, 2021 at 12:20AM
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Great Lakes’ water levels forecast to be in the ‘sweet spot’ for summer - MLive.com
"sweet" - Google News
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